Since the last nine years, gold investors have made money each year, while gains in silver have been consistent only in the last five years.
The cryptocurrency exchanges in India have got a fresh lease of life following the bull run in Bitcoin, which briefly hit a new all-time high of more than $69,000. Siddharth Sogani, managing director of CREBACO, expects the price to cross $1,00,000 by the end of the year. This will see a sharp reversal in the Indian market, which has largely been dormant since the new tax regime was implemented in 2023.
The new Samvat 2080 is viewed as a year of hope for industrial and precious metals. A key reason is the expectation of US interest rates peaking, followed by a reduction in the coming months. Regarding crude oil, its trajectory depends more on how the situation unfolds in West Asia.
Only 21 tonnes of gold have been mobilised in the last eight years under the gold monetisation scheme (GMS) which was announced by the Government of India in November 2015. This could be considered as a failure as the scheme has undergone several changes with a revamped GMS announced in April 2021 to improve collections. This figure was released by the World Gold Council (WGC) on Wednesday in its report titled 'Gold Investment Market and Financialisation, in India gold market series'.
Gold, the safest haven amid the ongoing uncertainty, also emerged as one of the most lucrative investment options in financial year 2022-23 with an impressive return of 16.1 per cent in rupee terms, and 2.3 per cent returns in dollars. And, had it not been for the very high inflow of smuggled gold and the huge discount prevailing in the market due to high prices, the returns in gold would have been much higher, analysts said. The precious metal has consistently been delivering positive returns in India since 2016.
The demand for gold is expected to take a hit if the price of the yellow metal - which has been hovering around Rs 60,000, a level never seen before - remains elevated. Due to a sharp increase in price in a very short time and the flow of smuggled gold continuing, gold price in Mumbai is quoted at around Rs 59,000 per 10 gram. Typically, overall demand in the January-March and July-September quarters is moderate-to-dull, which is the case in the ongoing period.
Gold import from the UAE at a lower rate of duty -- in terms of an agreement -- has posed a survival challenge for the Indian refining industry while hurting the price discovery of the metal, with the India International Bullion Exchange starting operations at GIFT City. The problem has arisen after the government signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the UAE. Under it, Indian jewellery manufacturers have been allowed to import gold at a concessional rate of 14 per cent against 15 per cent, which is normal.
Several exchanges are facing a cash crunch with committed investment not coming from venture capital funds and trading activity seeing a sharp decline, reports Rajesh Bhayani.
'When the gold price rises rapidly, India's physical gold market remains on standby.'
Thanks to an ambiguous law on the import of platinum alloys, some bullion importers are making big profits. A handful of them are importing refined gold cloaked as platinum alloy. Gold attracts 15 per cent import duty, as opposed to platinum alloy that invites a duty of 10.75 per cent. Industry sources say this is a case of mis-declaration and duty violation.
A sharp fall in the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is another hard blow to the already sinking cryptocurrency market in India. Global and domestic prices have been on a downward trail since November last year when Bitcoin prices hit a peak of close to $68,000 in international markets. The recent past has seen a much sharper fall in the price of the leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin.
However, NFTs and Metaverse are in their first-generation (Gen 1) or initial phase and the market is filtering the assets from the point of view of their worthiness. NFTs having real artistic value have not participated as much in the fall. Some innovations are also happening or expected going ahead, which will take this asset class to the next phase.
With days to go before the new tax regime around crypto assets kicks in, several investors are reportedly either booking profits, rejigging their portfolios or moving their crypto assets to their private wallets outside of India. Starting April, gains from trading in crypto and other virtual assets like non-fungible tokens (NFTs) will be taxed at a flat 30 per cent, as announced in the Union Budget. And, 1 per cent of tax will be deducted at source (TDS) on every transaction involving crypto and other virtual assets. The new tax regime also bars investors from offsetting losses from one crypto asset (such as Bitcoin) against gains from another (say, Ethereum).
Gold is usually seen as a safe-haven when stocks are falling or when inflation is rising. With prices of the yellow metal hovering near record highs, people are also putting off their jewellery purchases. Along with a subdued marriage season, the orders with price open and settled on delivery day, too, are getting cancelled. Apart from high, volatile prices, there is no gold rush yet for the safe-haven asset, crimping demand.
Dhanteras has cheered up jewellers as it has turned out to be the best in three years, thanks to the lower price of the yellow metal and pent-up demand. In Mumbai's Zaveri bazaar, buyers came in out force and jewellers did not have to depend on freebies to induce sales, even though all of them had announced some offers. In fact, more discounts were announced for diamond and studded jewellery.
In a first for India, bullion derivatives contracts will be settled on a blockchain platform. This will help in global acceptance of gold refined by Indian bullion refineries, giving a fillip to the local industry, exports, as well as investments. From November 1, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) will accept gold delivery only on the blockchain platform.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its gold purchases, as part of its foreign exchange (forex) reserves. In the first half (H1) of calendar year 2021 (CY21), the addition of gold to India's forex reserves has been the highest - on a half-yearly basis -at 29 tonnes. Now, the RBI's gold holding - as a proportion of its forex reserves - has for the first time crossed 700 tonnes.
The government is considering blocking internet protocol (IP) addresses of companies/exchanges on which trading in cryptocurrencies is happening, said a source in the know. Two months ago, the government had said it intended to bring a Bill to ban private cryptocurrencies and introduce India's own digital currency in line with what China and other countries had done. This move is part of that. The government had also proposed to promote technology like blockchain. Industry, however, says banning decentralised currencies like bitcoin and ethereum is not possible.
Bitcoin has been on fire ever since Musk announced that Tesla had bought $1.5 billion of the cryptocurrency, and that his electric-vehicle company would accept bitcoin from buyers.
Indian banks have started exploring opportunities in the space, including lending to crypto exchanges, and accepting bitcoins as collateral, among others.
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